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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 4 / 2013 (581)

Cyclical convergence of Central and Eastern European countries to the Euro area core. New methodological approach

Ileana ALEXE
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Oana Cristina POPOVICI
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Abstract. The current paper develops an analysis on the degree of business cycle convergence of the new member states of the EU towards the Euro area core (Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg) during 1996 – 2010.

Unlike the previous research, the study takes into consideration the similarity of cycles, and not their synchronization. Furthermore, from the methodological point of view, it explores the use of survey indicators in the analysis of the cycles, thus in addition to the traditional approach that employs the GDP. The results obtained through clusterization show that the degree of convergence towards Euro area core remains modest.

Keywords: cyclical convergence; business cycles; similarity of business cycles; Central and Eastern Europe; Euro area.

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