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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 11 / 2009 (540)

The Scarcity of Explicative Models

„For the most part of his existence on Earth, man did not live a better life on two legs than he did on four.”
Todd G. Buchholz

With this crisis, reality has put any economic theory in difficulty. The babbling amongst strategists and theorists is the disgusting expression of the failure of policies and of the theories they inspire. What seemed as a measure coming out of the rational understanding of the collapse was too quickly and too disappointingly proven to be a desperate improvisation meant to cover up ignorance.

The theory has proven its inconsistency in such a categorical way that Economics' status as a science was being put in doubt. From fiscal and monetary stimulus measures of Keynesian origin to the crisis-solving programs stuffed with neo-monetary ideas, failure has stubbornly persisted. One after the other there was excited belief in the magic of the letters V, U, L, M, W, obviously the alphabet leaving the imagination to work without touching reality. The explicative power of theorists was shattered with every day in which the crisis followed its mysterious path, as if it had the mission to contradict the assertions of some celebrity.

Whence this shameful cavalcade of theoretical illusions sold to economic policies? The already tried answers in the theoretical Babylon of the crisis are inconclusive. Even more, some explanations are downright false. The recourse to the eschatology of ideologies is part of this last category. Proclaiming the end of some models in the manner of the ironic expression "The king is dead! Long live the king!" is the most performed play.

The superficiality of feelings betrays a deficit of reason. The analytical attempts revolve around the empty idea that something seems to be dying and something else could possibly appear. In this construction, which haunts the thinking around the crisis, there is an obvious epistemic error because it exceeds the method of scientific knowledge. Ideological propensity has, in this crisis, an open field in which to roam together with the will for revenge - which is possible to realize now without too big of a cost. As with any crisis of proportion, this one too erodes the political systems no matter how solid they may be.

The assumption founds a different way of thinking than that of a science. Unfortunately, this type of thinking still controls significant areas at the level of economic decision¬making. The transfer of explicative rules from the perception of beliefs to the validation of certainties and from the fluidity of presumptions to the rigor of the truth spoils the status of economic science. The expectations turn the possible to absolute. Utopia is revisited. One built both on the moving sand of morbid nostalgias as well as on the malign pleasure for living cadavers. A new aimless path is reinvented, while economic theory, attempting to rehabilitate itself, will assure us it is the optimal one.

The height of the irrational in the positions inside the interregnum of the crisis is realized by those who believe that the only solution for coming out of the crisis is waiting for it to pass. The crisis is, for many, like a flu epidemic which arrives unannounced and passes - as jokers say - in seven days without treatment and in a week with treatment. Resemblance, Identity, Equality mark the spirit of these self-sufficient movements.

The ridiculous came to be the performance standard for those theories which experience nausea when met with interventionist measures or those which throw the towel when faced with the options of "laissez faire, laissez passer, le mode va de lui même". These centrifugal alignments show the same consistency anywhere and anyhow and, especially, are not interested in man. They have a favorite target placed at the heart of opposing ideologies. The failure of anti-crisis policies is a given of ideologies treated as recipes for decision and action. Even if they do it in a longer or shorter time, ideologies invariably fail. Messianic expectation have, therefore, a basis.

Does this crisis really radically change anything? The general feeling is that nothing will bear resemblance to that which was before the crisis. Change is a consequence of this crisis too, though it's more likely a correction of a course, an adjustment of mechanisms predisposed to functioning on the turbo system.

The truth brought by the crisis is shown as the expression of not only a movement of balance, from one behavioral limit to its opposite, but also of an attenuation of the trends of localizing performance in the extremes of ideas and pragmatism.

The crisis is the correction formula for the excesses represented by the typologies of opposing ideologies.

Somewhat unexpectedly, mankind overcomes its impotence, proven for two decades, of coming out of the horizon of post-communism which confuses the sense of post-capitalism.


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The Scarcity of Explicative Models
Marin Dinu

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The Economicity. The Epistemic Landscape, Marin Dinu, 2016

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