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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 1 / 2016 (606), Spring

Effects of oil returns and external debt on the government investment: A case study of Syria

Adel Shakeeb MOHSEN
University Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia

Abstract. This study attempts to investigate the effect of oil returns and external debt on the government investment in Syria over the period 1970-2010. The Johansen cointegration test showed that oil returns and external debt have a positive and significant long run relationship with the government investment. The Granger causality test indicated bidirectional causality relationships between oil returns, external debt and government investment in the short and long run. The IRFs showed that when there is a shock to oil returns or external debt, the government investment will respond positively in the following years. The study result indicates that oil returns have the biggest effect on the government investment, and both oil returns and external debt play a vital role in supporting the Syrian economy by financing the government investment.

Keywords: Syria, public sector, oil country, cointegration test, VAR.

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The Economicity. The Epistemic Landscape, Marin Dinu, 2016

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