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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 4 / 2012 (569)

Effects of the Trilemma Policies on Inflation, Growth and Volatility in Bulgaria

Yu HSING
Southeastern Louisiana University, USA

Abstract. This paper finds evidence of the trilemma for Bulgaria, suggesting that exchange rate stability, monetary independence and free capital mobility are binding and constrained. The policy combination of exchange rate stability and monetary independence has been prevalent. More exchange rate stability increases the growth rate of real GDP whereas more monetary independence or free capital mobility reduces the growth rate. The inflation rate, inflation volatility and output volatility are not affected by either one of the three trilemma policies.

Keywords: impossible trinity; three trilemma policies; inflation; economic growth; volatility.

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