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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 3 / 2017 (612), Autumn

Is more government debt or currency depreciation expansionary? The case of Poland

Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, USA

Abstract. This paper finds that Poland’s aggregate output is positively associated with the government debt-to-GDP ratio, the real effective exchange rate during 2002.Q4-2007.Q3, the real stock price and the real oil price and negatively impacted by the real effective exchange rate during 2007.Q4-2016.Q4, the real interest rate and the expected inflation rate. Hence, the current level of the debt-to-GDP ratio is sustainable, and real depreciation may be contractionary or expansionary depending upon the time period under consideration.

Keywords: government debt, real appreciation or depreciation, stock prices, oil prices.

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The Economicity. The Epistemic Landscape, Marin Dinu, 2016


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