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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 3 / 2022 (632), Autumn

The effects of exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balances between the MENA country group and France: empirical evidences based on non-linear ARDL approach

Hande Aksoz YILMAZ
Kirsehir Ahi Evran University, Turkey

Abstract. The aim of this study is to reveal the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balance between Middle East and North Africa (MENA) country group and France. There are used the variables of the import/export values of MENA and France, and the real value of domestic currency in Euro, and is employed nonlinear estimation method using data spanning the 1999QI-2021QIII. Findings reveal that the exchange rates carry a significantly positive coefficient in Bahrain, Tunisia, and Egypt, and a negative coefficient in Kuwait and Morocco, implying that real depreciation of the domestic currency against the euro will improve the MENAFrance trade balance.

Keywords: foreign trade, international trade, exchange rate, MENA country group, non-linear ARDL approach.

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The Economicity. The Epistemic Landscape, Marin Dinu, 2016

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