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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 3 / 2020 (624), Autumn

Analysis of the impact generated by COVID-19 in banking institutions and possible economic effects

Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania
Ionuț NICA
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania

Abstract. From the perspective of early warning and the effects generated by the COVID-19 pandemic, this article deals with the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has on the banking network. The 2019-nCoV coronavirus epidemic began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, which spread across the country and later in a very short period of time in several states, being seen as a global contagion effect that causes a large concern. The first part of the case study highlights that the behavior of agents greatly impacts the decisions they will make and this can cause financial and economic imbalances. The financial impact of coronavirus goes beyond the worst old scenarios, building the ideal framework for a possible economic crisis. Economic changes and their effects have also affected the stock markets. This is also analyzed in the first part of the case study and through the IT solution NetLogo we simulated the contagious economic effect that can be transmitted in the economy of a country that is built on the interactions between several economic agents, such as businesses, banks, institutions and even the government of a country. In the analysis performed in the second part of the case study, we collected data on the following stock market indices: S & P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE but also indices related to the banking groups that include both Raiffeisen Bank Romania and Romanian Commercial Bank and we analyzed these data in the Altreva Adaptive software.

Keywords: COVID-19, stock market, banking institutions, NetLogo, Altreva Adaptive Modeler.

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