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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 1 / 2023 (634), Spring

Uncertainty and monetary policy during the Covid-19 pandemic in Tunisia: Evidence from a Bayesian VAR

University of Sfax, Tunisia
Foued Badr GABSI
University of Sfax, Tunisia

Abstract. This paper aims to examine the impact of the uncertainty shock on the Tunisian economy and the effectiveness of monetary policy during the Covid-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we employ a Bayesian VAR model considering the world uncertainty index (WUI) as a new proxy for uncertainty measure and the short-term interest rate as the main instrument of monetary policy. The results indicate that the Covid-19 uncertainty shock has a negative consequence on economic activity and on aggregate demand in Tunisia. Moreover, we show that conventional monetary policy is ineffective in times of high uncertainty period.

Keywords: Covid-19, uncertainty, monetary policy, BVAR model, impulse response.

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The Economicity. The Epistemic Landscape, Marin Dinu, 2016


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