Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 1 / 2017 (610), Spring
Bankruptcy prediction logit model developed on Romanian paired sample
West University of Timișoara, Romania
Abstract. The current research targeted to develop a methodology for bankruptcy prediction applicable for Romanian companies. Under the effect of the economic crisis, as well as of the entrance in the European Union, Romania has registered a significant increase of the yearly bankruptcy frequency, which makes the availability of bankruptcy assessment tools more important than ever before. Using the logistic regression, the study proposes a multivariate model based only on financial data easily accessible to all the stakeholders of the company.
The target population consisted of all the companies from the Timis County with annual sales of over 10,000 lei (aprox. 2,200 Euro). The model was developed over a paired sample that included all the companies from the 2010 target population that went bankrupt by the end of 2012. The testing was performed over the entire target population from the period 2007-2010. The study has thus included 53,252 yearly financial statements from the period 2007-2010.
The proposed model will not allow the analyst to conclude with absolute certainty whether the analyzed company will go bankrupt or not within a two year horizon. Instead, it will offer the possibility of placing the companies on risk classes, thus creating the basis for a differentiated behavior of the stakeholder toward a specific company.
Keywords: ratio analysis, financial statements, risk, accuracy, benchmark.
Contents
- Bankruptcy prediction logit model developed
on Romanian paired sample
Daniel BRÎNDESCU-OLARIU
- The impact of financial risks on economic growth in EU-15
Ionuţ JIANU
Laura-Mădălina PÎRȘCOVEANU
Maria-Daniela TUDORACHE
- Unemployment convergence analysis for Nordic countries: Evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests
Burak GÜRIŞ
İpek M. YURTTAGÜLER
Muhammed TIRAŞOĞLU
- Inflation targeting and volatility: Panel evidence
Zied SAYARI
Rima LAJNAF
- Economic structure of educational process
and its implications for the higher education reform
Serguei MIKHAILITCHENKO
- Sustainability of social security systems in EU countries: Panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks
under cross-sectional dependence
Ismet GOCER
Halim TATLI
- The evolution of corruption and its current state – A case study on Romania
Ciprian ROTARU
Raluca GEORGESCU
Dumitru-Alexandru BODISLAV
- Exports in the European Union sub-models.
Determinants and performances
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George ȘTEFAN
Anca PARASCHIV-GHERMAN
- Growth and distribution of microfinance in India: A panel data analysis
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Franklin G. MIXON, Jr.
Kamal P. UPADHYAYA
- An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies
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A.K. GIRI
Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA
- The determinants of stock prices: Evidence from the Turkish banking sector
Arif SALDANLI
Mücahit AYDIN
Hakan BEKTAŞ
- Job complexity and wage bargaining
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- Macroeconomic models
used in structural analysis of GDP
Constantin ANGHELACHE
Alexandru MANOLE
Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL
- On the life and death of distance
Orestis VRAVOSINOS
- Vectors of economic growth in the eastern area of the EU
Cătălina MOTOFEI
- Performance management in the context of globalization
Roxana-Lucia MIHAI
Irina Florentina BĂJAN
Alina CREŢU
- Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in MENA countries: TYDL panel causality approach
Hicham AYAD
Mostéfa BELMOKADDEM
- The vulnerabilities of the gas supply system of the Republic of Moldova in the context of its energetic security
Iulian VIȚĂ
Cristina Elena NICOLESCU
- A formal look at the negative interbank rate
Gerasimos T. SOLDATOS
- Informatic system for identifying and evaluation of the environmental aspects
and waste products management
Rodica BUCUROIU
Marius Gabriel PETRESCU
- Banking Union framework and the stability
of the European Banking sector
Andrei HREBENCIUC