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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 4 / 2016 (609), Winter

Determinants of household loans

Sorin Daniel MANOLE
“Constantin Brâncoveanu” University of Piteşti, Romania
“Constantin Brâncoveanu” University of Piteşti, Romania
Ramona Ioana VLADA
“Lucian Blaga” University of Sibiu, Romania

Abstract. Although, with the onset of the global financial and economic crisis, there have been significant changes in the activity of banks in Romania, the level of household indebtedness has remained high until today. This is why this paper analyzes the influence of unemployment rate and Consumer Price Index on household loans in Romania. The analysis is based on monthly time series data during 2008-2015 of loans to households, unemployment rate and Consumer Price Index. To study this dependence, we have opted for a model with an ARMA component, where the influence of unemployment rate and Consumer Price Index manifests itself with a delay (lag) and is expressed by a linear relationship. The model shows that these factors have a significant influence on household loans.

Keywords: household loans, unemployment rate, Consumer Price Index, determinants of loans.

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