Abstract. The study examines the determinants of Romania’s house price growth cycle over the period 2005Q1-2024Q4. A Bayesian VAR with six variables is employed, namely real house prices, GDP, inflation, construction, macroprudential policy and monetary policy. The results are derived from variance decomposition and impulse response analyses under two shock identification methods. The findings suggest shifting contributions from house price idiosyncratic factors, inflation, GDP, and policy instruments, with notable differences between the roles of monetary and macroprudential measures. Under Cholesky identification, monetary policy exerted significant influence, whereas under sign restrictions, macroprudential policy emerged as a key driver, underscoring contrasting roles of policy instruments across episodes.

Keywords: house prices, real estate, macroprudential policy, monetary policy, BVAR.