Abstract. The introduction of macroprudential stability indicators for risk estimation in financial systems is a hot topic in transition countries. Our examination is focused on the repeating rate of instability in financial systems in Bosnia, Herzegovina and Croatia based on the selection of appropriate macroprudential indicators. Empirical investigation analyzed the statistical data of the National Bank of Croatia and the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina for the period of ten years between 2003 and 2013. With multivariate logistic regression we create a model based for determination of probability of the occurrence of instability in financial systems based on real values of macroprudential indicators.

Keywords: macroprudential analysis, system risk, financial system.