HomeDespre ECTAEventsPolitica editorialaTrimite un articolParteneri / link-uri utileArchiveAbonamentContact

ISSN 1841-8678   (print)
ISSN 1844-0029   (online)


Archive ECTAP

Note: for the period 1994-2003 the archive of the magazine will not be available online

Supplements ECTAP

If you cannot open the pdf file you need Adobe Reader.
download Adobe Reader

Creative Commons License

Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 4 / 2010 (545)

Testing the Nonlinearity of the Phillips Curve. Implications for Monetary Policy

Georgiana BALABAN
Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies

Abstract. This paper studies the nonlinearity of the Phillips Curve and its implications for monetary policy. To investigate the trade-off between output gap and inflation volatility we used a backward-looking model type. The data for our empirical analysis is obtained from the Area Wide Model (AWM) Database (from 1970 to 2008 for Euro area) and National Institute of Statistics (from 2000 to 2009 for Romania) and has quarterly frequency. The results of econometric tests indicate a significant estimated coefficient of the output gap for Romania, compared with the Eurozone; we find no significant evidence of nonlinearity of the Phillips curve in the European Monetary Union. This suggests that the optimal choice for European Central Bank should be a fixed inflation targeting, while the National Bank of Romania's monetary policy strategy should aim a flexible inflation targeting.

Keywords: monetary policy; Phillips curve; output gap; inflation; nonlinearity.

Download the full article:  


The Crisis of Reflexivity
Marin Dinu

Open acces




The Economicity. The Epistemic Landscape, Marin Dinu, 2016


ISSN 1841-8678 (ediția print) / ISSN 1844-0029 (ediția online)
© Copyright Asociația Generală a Economiștilor din România (AGER) / General Association of Economists From Romania  (GAER)
Redacția: 010702, București, Calea Griviței nr. 21, sector 1, E-mail:

© 2006-2023 AGER