Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 4 / 2019 (621), Winter
Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Role of aggregate and disaggregate expenditure in Pakistan
University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Wajid ALI
University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Abstract. The objective of this study is to examine the long run as well as short run relationship between government expenditure at aggregate as well as disaggregate level and economic growth in Pakistan. The study uses six functional forms of Wagner’s law and further classify these forms to incorporate disaggregate expenditure. Study uses annual time series data of Pakistan from 1976 to 2015 and applies Engle and Granger cointegration test for long run relationship, while Granger causality test is employed for short run analysis. The study found that no long run relationship exists between GDP and total expenditure as well as its sub-components i.e. expenditure on current subsidies, defence expenditure, current expenditure, and developmental expenditure, while long run relationship exists among GDP and expenditure on social, economic and education services. Unidirectional causality in favor of Wagener’s hypothesis exists from GDP to expenditure on current subsidies, expenditure on social, economic and education services, defence expenditure, and current expenditure, while unidirectional causality in favor of Keynesian hypothesis flows from developmental expenditure to GDP in the short run. Government has to invest more on human resource development to achieve sustainable economic growth in the long run. Government has to reallocate more resources towards developmental projects to achieve higher economic growth in the short run.
Keywords: government expenditure, economics growth, cointegration, causality, Pakistan.
Contents
- Expanding the Eurozone. The stage of economic convergence
for Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary,
Poland and Romania
Iulian Nicolae VASILOIU
- Volatility experience of major world stock markets
M. MALLIKARJUNA
R. Prabhakara RAO
- Unemployment hysteresis analysis for OECD countries
Muhammed TIRAŞOĞLU
- Culture as a driving factor for foreign direct investments
in the Western Development Region of Romania
Norbert FÖLDI
- A Deep Neural Network (DNN) based classification model
in application to loan default prediction
Selçuk BAYRACI
Orkun SUSUZ
- The new Keynesian Phillips Curve.
Implications. Strengths and weaknesses
Rareș-Petru MIHALACHE
Dumitru Alexandru BODISLAV
- Corporate ownership structure and performance:
An enquiry into India
Pradiptarathi PANDA
Jinesh PANCHALI
- Turkey’s macroeconomic policy challenges
in the aftermath of the 2018 crisis:
A sectoral financial balances analysis
Sashi SIVRAMKRISHNA
Dhruva Teja NANDIPATI
- Main aspects on the nature of dynamic models
Constantin ANGHELACHE
Dana Luiza GRIGORESCU
Oana BÎRSAN
- An analyses model
of the Romanian privately managed pension system
Dragoș Alexandru HAȘEGAN
- Dynamic models used in analysis capital and population
Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL
Ștefan Virgil IACOB
Gabriel-Ștefan DUMBRAVĂ
Marius POPOVICI
- Poverty rate determinants
in the Central and Eastern Europe member states
Maria-Daniela TUDORACHE
- Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis:
Role of aggregate and disaggregate expenditure in Pakistan
Kashif MUNIR
Wajid ALI
- GARCH based VaR estimation:
An empirical evidence from BRICS stock markets
Siva Kiran GUPTHA. K
Prabhakar RAO. R
- Does FDI substitute exports of home country?
A case of US FDI in select Asian economies
Ketan C. LIMAYE
Achut P. PEDNEKAR
- Exploring the role of institutions
in cross country Malmquist productivity analysis:
A two-stage double bootstrap DEA approach
Danish Ahmed SIDDIQUI
Qazi Masood AHMED
- The validity of Okun’s Law:
Evidences from Indian economy
Tariq Ahmad BHAT
Tariq Ahmad LONE
Towseef Mohi Ud DIN