Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 4 / 2024 (641), Winter
The effect of population ageing on savings: a time series analysis for Türkiye
Manisa Celal Bayar University, Türkiye
Abstract. Despite the theoretical debate on its impact on economic growth, saving is a key macroeconomic variable. This issue has received even more attention since the emergence of endogenous growth models, which argued that by holding technology constant, economic growth would be determined by a country's population growth rate and national saving rate. Later growth models have continued to include savings among the variables affecting economic growth. At this point, demographic change becomes important because household savings, which is an important component of national savings, will be directly affected by the ageing of the population. This relationship came to the fore in the mid-20th century with the emergence of two closely related theories linking the age of individuals to their saving and consumption behaviour: the life cycle hypothesis and the permanent income hypothesis. Both hypotheses assume that individuals seek to maximise their utility through a consumption profile consistent with their lifetime earnings. In Turkey, there has been a significant decline in fertility and mortality rates in recent years. Considering the rapid demographic transition that the country is going through, this study investigates the impact of population ageing on the overall saving volume. According to the findings obtained from the econometric analysis based on the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which includes a series of control variables such as income, interest rate and inflation as well as the amount of the elderly population, the aging of the population positively affects the volume of savings. Inflation and interest rate also have a positive effect on savings, but it is much weaker. Accordingly, it can be concluded that the life cycle hypothesis is not valid in Turkey.
Keywords: population ageing, gross saving, life cycle hypothesis, time series analysis, ARDL model.
Contents
- Digitalization and innovation:
a regional perspective on their interaction
Monica-Mihaela MAER MATEI
Andreea-Monica MUNTEANU
- Assessing the macroeconomic challenges in Romania
after the economic and financial crisis
Maria-Daniela TUDORACHE
- Green finance and innovation input: the promoters of carbon neutrality in China
Song GAO
Yating ZHU
Adelina DUMITRESCU PECULEA
- A simple model of online marketing,
production, profit and growth
Biswajit MANDAL
Labani Roy CHAKRABORTY
Alapan SANYAL
- The relationship of digital payments,
macroeconomic variables, and banking stability
in developing Asia
Meidiana AZZAHRAH
Ariodillah HIDAYAT
Liliana LILIANA
- Modelling the relationship between inflation
and uncertainty with existence of structural break:
evidence from Azerbaijan
Vugar RAHIMOV
- Analysis of the global energy resources evolution
in the context of the population growth
Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL
Ștefan Virgil IACOB
- Assessing the impact of energy and macroeconomic
shocks on the Romanian economy:
a Bayesian VAR approach
Alexandru George NEACȘU
Andrei Costin NEACȘU
Georgiana PLEȘA
Georgian Dănuț MIHAI
- Two faces of the same coin: integrated perspectives
of public and private debt on the effects
of interdependence on financial stability
Rareș-Mihai NIȚU
- Institutional quality and sustainability:
empirical study in 11 MENA countries
Salaheddine SARI-HASSOUN
Abderrahim CHIBI
Sidi Mohamed CHEKOURI
- Workplace economics – How does the Impostor Syndrome
affect organisational output?
Raluca Iuliana GEORGESCU
Dumitru Alexandru BODISLAV
Ionuț-Valeriu ANDREI
Alexandru COȘOCARIU
- COVID-19 and the labour market:
regional shifts of human capital working
in technology and employment
Teodora-Cătălina DUMITRA
Anamaria Beatrice ALDEA
- Validity of the environmental Kuznets Curve in Bangladesh
under the role of financial development
Omor FARUQ
Sanaullah TALUKDER
Evanta Hashem KATHA
Mashrura Kabir SHAEBA
- The impact of doing business indicators
on economic growth in emerging market economies:
a cross-sectional analysis
Komal CHHIKARA
- The dispersion of poverty
in some Romanian rural areas – good examples
of rural localities with the lowest poverty rates
Cristina STROE
- The stability and Growth Pact in Practice:
inefficiencies of previous debt rules and the way forward
Ionuț JIANU
Maria-Daniela TUDORACHE
- Leaders in disguise: power, perception, and paradox –
economics and the fragile authority of politicians
Dumitru Alexandru BODISLAV
Raluca Iuliana GEORGESCU
- Investigating the corporate debt and real investment nexus:
dynamics and challenges in a shifting financial landscape
Bashir Ahmad JOO
Simtiha Ishaq MIR
- The hidden economy revealed: profiling informal workers
through random forest classification
Maria Cristina GEAMBASU
Adriana AnaMaria DAVIDESCU
Eduard Mihai MANTA
Diana Marina AGAFITEI
- The determinants of political instability:
the role of mining resources
Ahandi Vincent LOMPO
Achille Augustin DIENDERE
- Quantitative easing and its implications
for contingent convertible triggers:
an analytical perspective
Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA
Răzvan COTESCU
Alexandra CHEPTIȘ
Alin Ioan VID