Abstract. Can bond yield curves, the Anxious Index, and/or institutional factors indicate if investors expect too much risk in the short-term, and therefore recessions? While hypothesizing that they can, yield curves may also be affected by shocks, inflation, debt, and maturity preferences, controlled for using both short-term, and wide-spanning, post-World War II regressions, in various countries. While these theories are found valid, the three main hypotheses are most presaging, and the effect of debt stands out, though dependent on savings. Finally, the article analyzes risk in financial institutions, finding that diversification of society can buffer risky, volatile finance institutions, and vice-versa.

Keywords: bonds, yield curve, Anxious Index, interest rate, debt, monetary policy.