Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 10 / 2013 (587)
Estimating the size of Romanian shadow economy using Gutmann’s simple currency ratio approach
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Abstract. Currency is widely assumed to have a comparative advantage over checks for the payment of purchases of goods and services that individuals wish to conceal from the authorities. A rise in currency stocks and payments may be taken as a rough indicator of the extent to which these transactions may not be reported to government authorities.
The paper aims to estimate the size of subterranean economy using the simple currency ratio method of Gutmann for quarterly data covering the period 2000-2010. Thus, the study analyzes the ratio of currency to demand deposits in order to estimate the amount of economic activity in the subterranean economy.
The empirical results point out that the illegal economic activities are about four billion RON at the middle of 2000; it constitutes 17.4 percent of the official GNP. During the period 2001-2004, illegal economic activities follow a downward path reaching 9.5% of official GNP at the end of 2004. For the period 2004-2006, unofficial economic activities fit a slow upward trend until the second quarter of 2006, for which the size of subterranean economy reaches the value of 12.3% of official GNP.
Beginning with 2007, the amount of illegal activities as % of official GNP begin to decrease until the third quarter of 2008, which is the base year in which no shadow economy is supposed to exist. For the last years, the ratio of subterranean economy to official economy increased slowly, reaching about 9.3% in the second quarter of 2010.
Keywords: shadow economy; currency; deposits; simple currency ratio; monetary aggregates; Romania.
Contents
- The Balkan balneotherapy product – an approach
from the destination marketing perspective
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Andreea BOTOȘ
Ion PÂRGARU
- A new vision on competitiveness
within the post-crisis economy.
Causes, evolutions and possible innovative solutions
to fight against the undesirable effects
of the economic crisis
Laura Mariana CISMAŞ
Ruxandra Ioana PITORAC
- Estimating the size of Romanian shadow economy
using Gutmann’s simple currency ratio approach
Adriana Ana Maria DAVIDESCU (ALEXANDRU)
- Motivation of the public employee in Romania
in the context of the economic crisis
Amalia CRISTESCU
Larisa STANILĂ
Mădălina Ecaterina ANDREICA
- Modeling the relationship between GDP
and unemployment for Okun’s law specific to Pakistan
during 1976-2010
Muhammad Aamir KHAN
Abdul SABOOR
Sarfraz Ahmad MIAN
Aftab ANWAR
- Education for sustainability – a prerequisite
for post-crisis economic competitiveness
with possible inference for Romania
Camelia Iuliana LUNGU
- Forecasting of the economic crisis
using business cycles patterns
Cristina VIŞAN
Dorel AILENEI
- The role of the human capital and investment
in human capital within the sustainable
socio-economic development.
How labour force migration affects competitiveness?
Liana SON
Graţiela Georgiana NOJA
- Costing systems design for sustainability
Mihaela TURTUREA
Radu Dan TURCU