Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 10 / 2013 (587)
Forecasting of the economic crisis using business cycles patterns
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Dorel AILENEI
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Abstract. The current global economic crisis has brought to the forefront of scientific research the issues of business cycles, particularly highlighting signals that predict ruptures in the normal dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations. In this sense a very important concern for the specialists relates to the identification of instruments capable of describing business cycles as accurately as possible. The problem is quite complicated because of the irregular (duration and amplitude) and asymmetric (by comparing recessionary gaps to inflation gaps) shapes. A very effective tool used for this purpose is the random recursive algorithm BBQ of James Engel. The authors aim to test the validity of this algorithm for the Romanian economy using monthly frequency data from 1991:01- 2012:05 period for the industrial production in order to identify specific characteristics of the business cycle.
Keywords: business cycle; recessionary gap; inflationary gap; turning points.
Contents
- The Balkan balneotherapy product – an approach
from the destination marketing perspective
Aurelia-Felicia STĂNCIOIU
Andreea BOTOȘ
Ion PÂRGARU
- A new vision on competitiveness
within the post-crisis economy.
Causes, evolutions and possible innovative solutions
to fight against the undesirable effects
of the economic crisis
Laura Mariana CISMAŞ
Ruxandra Ioana PITORAC
- Estimating the size of Romanian shadow economy
using Gutmann’s simple currency ratio approach
Adriana Ana Maria DAVIDESCU (ALEXANDRU)
- Motivation of the public employee in Romania
in the context of the economic crisis
Amalia CRISTESCU
Larisa STANILĂ
Mădălina Ecaterina ANDREICA
- Modeling the relationship between GDP
and unemployment for Okun’s law specific to Pakistan
during 1976-2010
Muhammad Aamir KHAN
Abdul SABOOR
Sarfraz Ahmad MIAN
Aftab ANWAR
- Education for sustainability – a prerequisite
for post-crisis economic competitiveness
with possible inference for Romania
Camelia Iuliana LUNGU
- Forecasting of the economic crisis
using business cycles patterns
Cristina VIŞAN
Dorel AILENEI
- The role of the human capital and investment
in human capital within the sustainable
socio-economic development.
How labour force migration affects competitiveness?
Liana SON
Graţiela Georgiana NOJA
- Costing systems design for sustainability
Mihaela TURTUREA
Radu Dan TURCU