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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 1 / 2020 (622), Spring

The analysis of the quarterly evolution of the gross domestic product in 2019

Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania
“Artifex” University of Bucharest, Romania
Ștefan Virgil IACOB
“Artifex” University of Bucharest, Romania
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania

Abstract. Gross Domestic Product is the most complex indicator of the results of a country. According to the methodology of the national accounts system, it is calculated quarterly and annually. The quarterly calculation of the Gross Domestic Product plays an important role both in establishing the situation at one time of the national economy's outcome, but also in obtaining accurate information about how the national economy has evolved and how it will evolve in the future.

The analysis of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product in 2019 showed an increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year 2018, as compared to the previous quarter. It has been found that overall in the third quarter the activity is a bit slower, i.e. the results are weaker, this probably taking into account the seasonal character of some activities marked during the summer holidays and many others. The analysis of the evolution of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product was made on the basis of raw data series, but also on the basis of seasonally adjusted data series according to the number of days worked. The results are somewhat close and show an increase of the Gross Domestic Product in the last three years, reaching the end of 2019 to register a provisional increase of the Gross Domestic Product by 4.1%, compared to December or 2018. The analysis also expanded on how resources and uses contributed to the formation and growth of the Gross Domestic Product in each quarter and then annually. Some components of the resources and uses that had a negative effect were highlighted during the analysis, by increasing the price index on the results obtained within the national economy.

The analysis reveals a particular model of interpretation and quarterly study, which needs to be carried out in order to identify the stage in which the evolution of the economic activity is and the effect that the measures taken by the authorities in the national development programs have.

Keywords: Quarterly GDP, resources, uses, price index, volume index, estimator.

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The Economicity. The Epistemic Landscape, Marin Dinu, 2016


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