ECTAP
 
HomeDespre ECTAEventsPolitica editorialaTrimite un articolParteneri / link-uri utileArchiveAbonamentContact
 

ISSN 1841-8678   (print)
ISSN 1844-0029   (online)

News

Archive ECTAP

Note: for the period 1994-2003 the archive of the magazine will not be available online

Supplements ECTAP

If you cannot open the pdf file you need Adobe Reader.
download Adobe Reader

Creative Commons License

Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 3 / 2025 (644), Autumn

Assessing the macroeconomic impact of fiscal deficit in India: evidence from ARDL approach

Prakhar PANDEY
Kumaun University, India
Rajnish PANDE
Kumaun University, India

Abstract. This paper examines the dynamic interaction between economic growth in India and fiscal deficit data between the years 1970 and 2021 through the use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing method. Based on the theoretical framework of the Neoclassical school of thought, the paper will seek to learn whether fiscal deficit is either a stimulus to long-term growth or a limiting factor. Surprisingly, empirical findings have indicated that fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP negatively influences the long-run growth at a statistically significant level. This favours the crowding-out theory that where a government borrows too much, it can force out any private investment by reducing economic growth. Gross capital formation, broad money supply, and trade openness in the short run however, demonstrate several mixed and varying effects on growth, representing the intricacies of the interactions of various variables in the macroeconomic setting. The model assumes that diagnostic tests involving no serial correlation, homoscedasticity, and normal residuals are met; hence, estimates are reliable. The results show the essence of prudent fiscal management. To achieve inclusive and stable growth in India, policymakers ought to focus on measures that imply decreasing structural deficits, increasing the quality of public spending, and striking a compromise between temporary economic demands and long-term sustainability.

Keywords: fiscal deficit, economic growth, ARDL, public finance.

Download the full article:  

Contents

Open acces

ECTAP

Search

BOOKS

The Economicity. The Epistemic Landscape, Marin Dinu, 2016

Partners


ISSN 1841-8678 (ediția print) / ISSN 1844-0029 (ediția online)
© Copyright Asociația Generală a Economiștilor din România / Editura Economică
Redacția: Oficiul poștal 18, Ghișeul 3 - Căsuța poștală 31, București 014820, E-mail: economia.ta@edeconomica.com

© 2006-2026 Theoretical and Applied Economics